Future History

Match Made in Moscow

2010-05-12T17:18:00.003-04:00

Russia-Ukraine pact leaves EU all at sea Asia Times Online, by Stephen Blank 29 April 2010

Great analysis as always by Blank. I think he gets it right in regards to the new accommodation that the Ukrainian election gives Russia. I would disagree slightly with his characterization of the Ukrainian's giving in to the Russian demand as if there was some kind of negotiation. Yanukovich was going to be Moscow's man in Kiev; I don't think he has much concern about violating Ukrainian sovereignty. This coupled with the customs union treaty between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan has increased Russian influence and returned them to Great Power status in the region.

Subservient Until They Are Not

2010-05-12T17:08:00.003-04:00

Eastern Europe, Seeking Energy Security, Turns to Shale Gas, by Judy Dempsey New York Times, 11 May 2010

Underscores the division in Europe with regards to how to perceive Russia and its energy contributions to the Continent. The Eastern Europeans, aka those states with a pretty recent memory of Russian domination, are trying to prevent any repeat of this history.
It doesn't sound like these deposits in Poland will enable them to break themselves completely but it will certainly get Moscow's attention. Poland gets more than 90% of its energy from Russia, a figure that forces them into certain uncomfortable realities.
Ordinarily I like interdependent relationships, not wholly dependent ones. Natural resource dependency especially puts states in the subservient role. The US has to be involved in the Middle East to preserve energy security and the Europeans and Central Asians have to acquiesce to the Russians. Its not a relationship built on mutual dependency but rather forced addiction.

Egypt after Hosni

2010-05-12T16:56:00.002-04:00

Mubarak Challenges Egyptian Opposition to Reveal Policies, BBC News, 6 May 2010

Mubarak recently extended the "State of Emergency" that has been hovering over Egypt since 1981 for an additional 2 years. This probably means no El Baradei but it probably also means Mubarak isn't running again.
Even money has the Chief of the Intelligence Service, General Suleiman becoming President next in some kind of caretaker role until Mubarak's son, Gamal is ready for prime time. He's seen as something of a reformer but then again almost all despotic sons promise reform.
This is a disturbing trend in international relations in which the son is given the head of state position like the keys to his Dad's car. Other examples: North Korea, Libya, Syria.
Egypt is the natural leader of the Arab Middle East, a position that has been less than ably filled by Saudi Arabia if it is filled at all. The next leader of Egypt can either open the state up for reform and unleash the potential of 80 million educated people or further the country's decline into irrelevance and possible unrest.

Its Not Identical Capability That Should Make US Nervous

2010-04-27T18:58:00.003-04:00

Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power by Edward Wong, New York Times, 23 April 2010

Cyber Warriors by James Fallows, The Atlantic, March 2010

Great article by the Times that highlights the trends in PRC naval development. The part that seems missing is how it is not Chinese policy to emulate the US Navy's strategy of having an aircraft carrier in each corner of the world. The up coming commissioning of the PLA Navy's first carrier will give it a leg up against all regional navies. That's the audience that the PRC is trying to get.

The other technologies that China is pursing are mostly sea lane denial. Submarines that can make carrier exposure risky in the tight South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca as well as hypersonic anti ship missiles are just some of the asymmetric tactics available. Hard to rationalize risking a multi-billion dollar aircraft carrier against a swarm of relatively cheap diesel subs.

The benefit of China's numerical advantage is also evident in cyberwarfare. Fallows knows China and he is aware that anything multiplied by 1.3 billion magnifies the capability. Bottom line, individual Russian, Israeli, French or American cyberwarriors may be better, but as Lenin said "Quantity is a quality all its own."

Don't Worry; We'll be Democratic Later

2010-04-08T18:24:00.003-04:00

Kyrgyz Opposition Says it Will Rule for Six Months by Clifford J. Levy, New York Times, 8 April 2010

Street violence, delays stoke Guinea vote fears by Saliou Samb, Reuters Africa, 31 March 2010

If there's one thing that's true of countries that fall to coups and are overseen by "interim governments", they don't stay interim for long. The new boss seems to always like the perks that the old boss got booted for. I'm not holding my breath for any real elections in either Guinea or Kyrgyzstan in six months or any time soon.